Acceleration – a theme from Future Earth – Research for Global Sustainability

by George A. Garland, DBA, Director, Energy Project, UNA-SNY

The Great Acceleration provides a planetary dashboard of 12 socio-economic and 12 earth system trends that help explain why we the future of the global community is now up to us. (http://www.futureearth.org/blog/2015-jan-16/great-acceleration).  Yesterday I blogged Clean Power Win. So how can we accelerate progress toward that win?  Here are some thoughts of what we might review and analyze.

Success stories – What did they do, how did they do it, what did it cost, what are the payoffs? The 3,000 plus wastewater treatment plants have a basic mission to clean water. Managing the residuals from that basic mission to generate energy, save other residuals from landfills, and reduce costs for the ratepayers is extra. Success stories which make clear the means and benefits from taking on that extra risk will ease the path for stakeholders in wastewater treatment plants to play a vital role in promoting energy efficiency and production of renewable energy.

             Peer matching – Decision makers trust other decision makers in similar positions to answer questions on concerns about things that can go right or wrong and appreciate local challenges. Public works directors trust public works directors. Mayors trust mayors. City managers trust city managers. Peer matching facilitates access to officials responsible for successful projects for those considering change.

Information exchange – Governors, State legislators, mayors, city managers, public works directors, and various professionals have annual meeting with break out sessions on topics of interest. Support break out sessions on moving waterwater treatment plants from using 3% of electricity produced in the US to producing 6% of the electricity used in the US at these annual meetings. How is a Massachusetts program to encourage anaerobic digestion working? California? Which of the 47 States which the US Environmental Protection Agency found to have energy efficiency programs are happy with their results?

Dashboard – What would a dashboard tracking success stories in achieving energy efficiency and capacity to produce renewable energy look like?

Notes on Sustainable Energy For All Forum

by George A. Garland, DBA, Director, UNA Energy Project

The Second Annual Sustainable Energy for All Forum (se4allforum.org) had 2500 registrants for meetings in New York on four days in May 2015. Simultaneous tracks included Financing Sustainable Energy for All, Driving Country Action, Universal Energy Access, Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Global Policy Agenda, and Growing the Movement. SE4ALL commits the global community to provide access to all, double energy efficiency, and double the share of energy coming from renewables by 2030.

            Kandeh Yumkella, Special Representative of the Secretary General , Sustainable energy for All, noted that energy access had been extended to an additional 200 million people leaving 1.1 billion yet to be served. Anita Marangoly George, Senior Director, Global Practice on Energy and Extractive Industries, World Bank, and John Podesta, former Chief of Staff to President Bill Clinton and Counselor to President Barack Obama, USA both called for integration of the Sustainable Development Goals, which now include energy targets, with Sustainable Energy For All.

The Sustainable Development Goals will be presented to the September 2015 General Assembly for adoption. In July 2015, Financing for Development will meet in Addis Ababa to address funding for the Sustainable Development Goals and commitments to address climate change from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Paris in December 2015. Citing needed investment at over a trillion dollars per year, Anita George estimated needed funding from public private partnerships at $46 billion per year to achieve universal access to energy, $360 billion per year to double the renewable energy share, and $390 billion per year to double energy efficiency by 2030. She noted that, without the $46 billion in additional investments for universal energy access, by 2030 the number without access to electricity will increase above 1.1 billion.

Financing Sustainable Energy for All

            Payback period for many projects less than two years. Larger buildings in New York City (over 50,000 square feet) have already taken steps. NYC offering technical assistance to smaller buildings to facilitate action. Many small projects may be aggregated to make them attractive to financial institutions. Branding similar efficiency actions may help to make energy efficiency loans as easy as car loans. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development aggregates by industrial sector (eg steel industry). Losses in energy transmission a financing target. Inter-American Development Bank does workshops to familiarize private sector engineers and chief financial officers with energy efficiency opportunities. World Bank sets up energy efficiency revolving funds; uses utilities as marketing intermediaries; partial credit guarantees; ESCO’s.

Universal Energy Access

            High impact on lives of women and children with investments in clean cooking as about 4 million deaths per year from 3 billion using dirty stoves—more deaths than from HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and malaria combined. Hospital electricity to assist in births and cold chain for drugs needing refrigeration also high impact. Solar for African schools (half no electricity) and pumping water also high impact.

Renewable Energy

            Cost of solar and wind down. Renewables use much less water

Global Energy Policy

            Emphasis on bankable projects, private sector initiative. . IMF report on subsidies noted.

Growing the Movement

            High Impact Opportunities and High Impact Implementation projects were identified for Clean Energy Mini-Grids, the Water-Energy-Food Nexus, and Bioenergy.

Ending routine gas flaring a global priority. Involving youth a priority.

Source Materials: What’s Available on Climate and Sustainability

by George A. Garland, Director, Energy Project

A Safe and Just Space for Humanity: Can We Live Within the Doughnut?

is an Oxfam Discussion Paper by Kate Raworth. Traditional economic analysis assumes that all information is available and the price system makes optimal decisions. Kate Raworth uses the doughnut to show planetary boundaries of a safe operating space and the unmet need for economic justice for the billion or so people living on less than $1.25 a day. The center of the doughnut represents economic injustice and the outside of the doughnut is earth unsafe for humans.  This is a great summary of environmental and developmental issues not captured by the normal price system.

www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/dp-a-safe-and-just-space-for-humanity-130212-en.pdf

Planetary Boundaries The past 10,000 years or so (the Holocene) have been a safe operating space for humans with temperatures within a relatively narrow range. Just published in Science, “Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet” updates a 2009 article which introduced tipping points beyond which we could move out of a safe operating space. These nine dimensions are, briefly, climate change, biosphere integrity (biodiversity), land system change (forests, agricultural use), ocean acidification, biogeochemical flows (nitrogen, phosphorous), freshwater use, atmospheric aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone depletion, and novel entities (chemical pollution). A range of values is given within which risk of unexpected and irreversible change is possible. For climate change, the range of atmospheric carbon is 350 parts per million to 500 parts per million. We are currently at about 400 parts per million so we are in the zone of risk.

www.stockholmresilience.org/21/research/research-programmes/planetary-boundaries.html

Sustainable Development Goals The United Nations summit for the adoption of the post-2015 development agenda will be held from 25 to 27 September 2015, in New York and convened as a high-level plenary meeting of the General Assembly.

A draft set of 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs), with 169 targets, will form the basis of intergovernmental discussions over the next year. The draft, compiled by a UN-appointed working group that comprised 70 countries, was presented to the General Assembly.    http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgsproposal

Age of Sustainability Jeff Sachs, United Nations point person for Sustainable Development Goals and Director of Columbia’s Earth Institute, points out that global economic production will triple by 2050 while carbon intensity needs to fall by half from amount used today—a reduction by a factor of 6. His course highlights challenges including sustainable cities, food, energy, and health to achieve social justice, good governance, and environmental sustainability.  Enroll at www.sdsnedu.org.

Climate and Energy Policy in the Global Context

by Brandon Huck, Coordinator, UNA-SNY Energy Project

On September 17, the Southern New York Division’s (SNY) Energy Project held an event entitled “Climate and Energy Policy in the Global Context” at the UN Foundation Office in Manhattan.

The featured speakers were Tapio Kanninen, PhD and George Garland, DBA.   David Stillman, PhD, a UNA-SNY Division board member and Executive Director, Public-Private Alliance Foundation, served as the event’s moderator. The nearly 30 other participants included UN staff and consultants, UNA members, professionals from various fields, faculty, and students. The event coincided with the lead up to Climate Action Week in New York City.

Dr. Kanninen’s presentation began with graphs depicting how the recent growth in fossil fuel emissions is increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, matching historically high average temperatures and leading to sea level rises. Dr. Kanninen also posed a series of questions related to global energy consumption patterns and the need to produce more energy from renewable sources to displace the world’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Among his key points were:

– Increased demand and use of fossil fuels from the ‘BRICS’ and other rapidly developing countries is only adding to the already unsustainable levels of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere.

– Only 30-40 percent of current proven fossil-fuel reserves can be burnt to have a reasonable chance of remaining below the 2°C target increase in the earths’ average temperature. Yet the flow of investments into fossil energy is about 3-4 times bigger than into renewable energy sources.

– Present alternative energy sources – primarily solar, wind, and nuclear—contribute only a small proportion of global energy supplies relative to fossil fuels and would not sustain current global economic growth.

– The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is marshalling experts from various fields in robust dialogue and reporting about climate change’s causes and effects. However, its call to “double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix” is not enough on its own.

– One proposed market solution is a cap-and-trade system and this option will be included in the climate change discussions at the 2015 Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Paris.

– Global challenges are more than interconnected than ever, but humans consistently underestimate the impact or threat from these connections.

Dr. Kanninen finished by underscoring that the change of focus from short-term to long-term sustainable development goals (SDGs) is not going to be easy. Therefore, there is a need to educate people at all levels about the climate change crisis and to provide ways for them to do their part to help stem the tide of climate change.

Dr. Garland started by noting that China has passed the U.S. in total CO2 emissions, with the U.S. now second and India third. However, the U.S. still leads by far in per capita emissions. Meanwhile, the EU altogether produces about half the level of U.S. emissions.

He also pointed to several facts from recent reports and studies on the impact of current energy consumption:

– An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts that at current energy use rates, the world will miss the proposed carbon reduction goals by a factor of more than two.

– The OECD’s International Energy Agency foresees world energy consumption being up 56% by 2040, with approximately 90% of the increase coming from countries outside the OECD.

– US Energy Information Agency foresees a 25% increase in power generation by 2040, with one-third of increase coming from renewables and two-thirds coming from natural gas.

– A recent McKinsey report indicated that the US could reduce its energy consumption by 20% through efficiency programs. Although more than 75% of U.S. states now have energy efficiency requirements, state and local governments must continue to take the lead in innovating.

– The U.S. is stymied from taking more action at the federal government level to reduce emissions due to either political stalemate between the President and U.S. Congress or because of legal barriers, such as state lawsuits against energy use regulations proposed by the EPA and other agencies.

– One corrective measure that could be used is implementation of a tax on carbon emissions.

– Bangladesh offers an example of a government that is encouraging its people to change their behaviors, for example by promoting solar power, by taxing energy usage, and by cooperating with private enterprises to identify effective incentive programs.

Dr. Garland concluded his remarks by warning that the UN’s ‘Sustainable Energy for All’ initiative is likely to be insufficient in solving for the lack or limited access to energy that 1 billion people suffer from daily.

Click here for a video of the event

You can receive Dr. Kanninen’s presentation and Dr. Garland’s notes by emailing a request to: unasouthernny@gmail.com.

Resources

UN Global Pulse: Features the work of scientists and statisticians who produce data on climate change.

Climate Action:  Climate Action works with the UN Environment Program to establish and build partnerships between business, government and public bodies to accelerate international sustainable development and advance the ‘green economy,’ partly through media.

Climate Reality Project: The Climate Reality Project trains individuals as speakers available to the public to discuss climate change topics and provides other opportunities personal involvement and action.

‘The Future of Energy‘: A new non-profit film about the clean energy revolution.  The site provides action plans and opportunities for screening the film.

Young Professionals Dinner Series

By Melinda Richardson

UNA Joined by Dr. Michael Dorsey for Young Professionals Dinner Series

Dr. Michael Dorsey, a climate justice expert and the Director of Energy and Environment at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington D.C., joined the UNA-SNY Young Professionals along with the Energy Project team for an intimate dinner conversation about both his academic research and work with the United Nations Government Liaison service regarding climate policy. The far reaching discussion included the realities of climate change we face at present and the injustice and unbalance globally for lower income countries with changed weather patterns and environmental hazards. Dr. Dorsey encouraged us as UNA members to act as advocates to influence policy at the United Nations through continued and sustained dialogue.

Green Energy for a Billion Poor

By George Garland

Energy for All The International Energy Agency estimates that it would take investments of $49 billion each year until 2030 to achieve energy for all. At the same time, it forecasts that there will be a billion people without energy access in 2030. The world’s largest utility companies are included in the Global Sustainable Electricity Partnership (www.globalelectricity.org). These companies need customers ability to pay and a governmental regulatory infrastructure before they can commit huge sums.  A hopeless situation? Mavbe not if off grid systems working directly with the unserved can grow and prosper!

A book by Nancy Wimmer,  Green Energy for a Billion Poor, describes how over 500,000 Solar Home Systems were installed by social business Grameen Shakti in rural Bangladesh between 1996 and 2010. While funding from several sources including rhe International Finance Corporation, World Bank, and USAID provided much needed working capital, solar home systems were sold, not given away. From 2004 onwards, sales of solar home systems exceeded the number needed for Grameen Shakti to break even. This economically sustainable approach is a key feature of the social business model to ensure survival after external funding goes away. The eight years from 1996 to 2004 when Grameen Shakti was cash flow negative underscores the need for patience in establishing a social business and the importance of external funding for initial working capital. As it took many of the rural poor half a year to earn the cost of a solar home system, an eight year start up period goes beyond reasonable to miraculous. So how did they do it?

Pioneering efforts included:

• Focus on one solution to a single issue
• Right expertise in the right place
• Identifying early acceptors
• Valid information about benefits and costs
• Listening to concerns of potential customers
• Adapting technology to needs
• Follow up service and user education
• Resourceful and dedicated staff
• Recognition of financial constraints

Focus on one solution to a single issue While Grameen Shakti later addressed needs for clean cook stoves and energy from biogas, pioneering efforts addressed a solar energy solution to address a lack of electricity. Only choices were amount of solar power.

Right expertise in the right place Engineers were sent to the villages to market, install, adapt and maintain solar home systems.  Potential customers were courted with information and demonstrations by knowledgeable experts.

Identifying early acceptors Shops that could extend shopping opportunity into evening hours; workshops that could extend productive hours; and village leaders who had children currently burning expensive and smoky, unhealthful kerosene for evening studies were identified as good prospects. Early adopters is a bit optimistic as many visits to explain benefits, answer technical questions, work out payment modes, and address concerns over system reliability were usually needed in early sales.

Valid information about benefits and costs Information on expected savings on kerosene or alternative fuels, performance capabilities of different levels of solar home systems, need for customer awareness of system needs, details of cost and financing options, projected income from extra hours of operation, health impacts from eliminating smoke were all carefully and patiently explained. Customers, regardless of level of education, wanted answers to economic, technical, operational, and system capability questions.

Listening to concerns of potential customers Grameen Shakti  personnel listened respectfully to ever so many questions. This paid dividends in building a storehouse of valid information as noted above as well as in adapting products to suit market niches.

Adapting technology to needs Because Grameen Shakti staff were engineers who also installed and maintained systems, they could make technological and procedural adjustments to suit each situation.

Follow up service and user education Rural villages in Bangladesh have no lack of rapid dissemination of information, including customer dissatisfaction. Prompt attention to system needs, including explaining limits and good practices to assure long lasting and reliable system service, was essential. Follow up in collecting payments helped establish that Grameen Shakti was serious about social business and not a giveaway program.

Resourceful and dedicated staff Pioneering staff faced very basic living conditions and demanding travel options. No prima donnas need apply. Staff needed to create responses to healthy skepticism of new technology. New enterprise had to  build trust levels that products would be delivered and maintained. Creativity was essential in showing how payments could be met for those with limited financial resources. Over time, helping communities respond to extreme weather was an overarching contribution of Grameen Shakti personnel.

Recognition of financial constraints Pioneering sales were made on terms of 50% down and the rest in six monthly payments. While Grameen Shakti’s of working capital after credibility with funders had increased allowed for more generous terms of payment over three years, initial sales were on terms consistent with a start up operation that was determined to become economically sustainable.

2014 UNA-USA Annual Meeting: Dr. Robert Orr on Climate Change

By Weijia Li, UNA-SNY Energy Project

At this year’s UNA-USA Annual Meeting, I had the privilege of listening to a talk by the UN Assistant Secretary-General Dr. Robert Orr, who is also the most senior American at the UN. He focused on and stressed the significance of climate change, for several compelling reasons.

We cannot, he says, advance the Millenium Development Goals if climate change continues at this rate. Climate change affects every piece of the UN agenda and affects everything the UN is trying to do today for everyone, everywhere in the world. It is the underlying factor for peace, security, and development.

However, the UN needs the help of the US. The rest of the world also expects US leadership on climate change. So as Americans, we need to put forth rational energy policies that accelerate the use of renewables and to catalyze a clean energy revolution. Rather than wasting money on temporary fixes, we need to combat climate change directly. This will save us trillions of dollars in the future.

Every year that we delay action on climate change, the cost goes up for mitigating its effects. Even the Middle East has installed clean energy projects. I thought it was particularly compelling when Dr. Orr said, “If the Middle East can see the future, why can’t [the US]?”

The upcoming UN Climate Summit on September 23, 2014 in New York will be the largest gathering of global leaders in history in one place. The Climate Summit is strategically scheduled to occur during this year’s annual Climate Week NYC and one year prior to the 2015 UNFCCC Climate Change Conference in Paris. It is stated that “by catalyzing action on climate change prior to the UNFCCC Conference, the Secretary-General intends to build a solid foundation on which to anchor successful negotiations and sustained progress on reducing emissions and strengthening adaptation strategies.”

My call to action for Americans is to write to your Congressman/woman and Senators to urge the US Mission to the UN to establish concrete goals at this year’s UN Climate Summit.

On a more personal note, I know that Dr. Orr’s wife Audrey Choi leads Morgan Stanley’s Institute for Sustainable Investing and Global Sustainable Finance Group. With this in mind, I spoke with Dr. Orr after his talk and asked for his perspective on tackling climate change from the public/NGO sector vs. the private sector. He told me that the two are very different, but to be successful, we need to know both sides because both sides need to work together. This was reminiscent of a similar conversation I had with the Senior Policy Advisor on Energy to the UN Secretary-General.

What this means for all world citizens is that no matter what sector we identify ourselves in, we can make an impact to tackle climate change.

Consultation on Ethanol Cookstoves at the United Nations

By Brandon Huck, UNA-SNY Energy Project

On April 4^th, 2013, the Public-Private Alliance Foundation (PPAF) convened a consultation at the United Nations (U.N.) to provide an update on its pilot project involving the use of ethanol cookstoves and fuels in Haiti. The meeting was co-sponsored by PPAF and the UN Office for Partnerships, and included other interested parties, such as Path To Haiti Business Consulting LLC, SImACT, Inc., and Project Gaia, Inc.   The United Nations Association Southern New York State Division and its Energy Project supported the event.

The consultation brought together actors from a variety of sectors and diverse organizations with a goal of discussing the pilot project and coming to agreement on next steps and priorities for its expansion. In addition, the meeting functioned as a vehicle to increase awareness and knowledge among its participants of the benefits and potential of ethanol cookstoves and clean cooking fuels as alternatives to traditional cooking methods and materials in Haiti. In that country, the majority of cooking is still done using charcoal and wood-burning stoves, practices which often result in unclean and unsafe conditions that disproportionately and negatively affect mothers and children by exposing them to serious health and safety risks, such as a higher incidence of respiratory ailments and diseases.

Participants in the consultation met first in a plenary session and then in small groups to discuss the specific challenges and opportunities associated with PPAF’s pilot project, as well as the possibility of broader commercialization of ethanol cookstoves in Haiti. Several presenters referenced the pilot’s unique status as the first project of its kind in Haiti. Through relations with Dometic Group AB – a manufacturer of ethanol cookstoves Project Gaia, Inc., which donated an initial supply of stoves for the pilot –and other partners on the ground in Haiti, PPAF and Path to Haiti have been able to introduce hundreds of Haitians to the ethanol cookstoves. The pilot participants and observers have included low-income mothers, community organization representatives, small business owners, government officials, and employees at a participating hotel, providing for diverse perspectives on the efficacy and usability of the stoves and fuel.

Participants in the consultation learned about the many advantages offered by ethanol cookstoves. One is the ability to tap into a growing desire by Haitians at all societal levels to overcome the poverty-respiratory disease-deforestation trap caused by Haiti’s heavy reliance on cooking with wood or charcoal. As an alcohol-based fuel, ethanol is considered a ‘clean fuel’ and offers a healthier alternative to cooking with petroleum-based fuels. The ethanol cookstoves take less time to cook food versus the traditional methods employed. In addition, clean cookstove models would leverage existing equipment and technology in Haiti, and create a new value stream for farmers and distillers if mass production of ‘fuel-grade’ ethanol alcohol could be made viable.

From an economic perspective, the commercialization of ethanol cookstoves might benefit Haiti more generally. For one, it could spur increased demand and innovation in sugar cane production, which is currently imported in larger quantities than it is grown locally – a surprising fact given Haiti’s long history of sugar cane farming. Furthermore, the transition to ethanol cookstoves may provide an attractive investment option to the Haitian diaspora, who annually give approximately $3 billion to family and friends in Haiti and support various social causes and business enterprises.

Lastly, the pilot project supports the goal of the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves, which aims for100 million households worldwide to adopt clean and efficient stoves and fuels by the year 2020.

UN Announces Energy Decade

Our Energy Blog begain with the 2012 Year of Sustainable Energy for All.  The UNA Southern New York State Division’s Energy Project has a small steering committee which meets bi-monthly.  The group organizes and participates in events related to energy and to sustainable development;  it communicates through unaenergy@googlegroups.com  To join, please send an email to jbs@stratdev.com 

On 21 December 2012 the United Nations General Assembly unanimously declared the decade 2014‑2024 as the Decade of Sustainable Energy for All, underscoring the importance of energy issues for sustainable development and for the elaboration of the post-2015 development agenda. 

At its March meeting the Division’s Energy Group agreed to support this Decade as a basis for its program and actions in the coming years.  The Energy Group also agreed to support an event to be held at the United Nations on April 4 by the Public-Private Alliance Foundation.  This Consultation on Ethanol Cookstoves and Fuels (with an emphasis on Haiti) focuses on clean energy and reduction of the deforestation that is prevalent in Haiti.  The consultation also will promote use of the ethanol cookstoves and fuel worldwide.

Doha Climate Change Conference – COP 18

http://www.cop18.qa/en-us/News/SingleStory.aspx?ID=296  

text verbatim

“The President of COP18/CMP8 hailed the agreement reached after two-weeks of grueling negotiations as a “Gateway to the future”.  Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah said the final extra day of the UN Climate Change Conference had been historic as all parties had reached consensus despite complications and many hours of extra consultation.

The “Doha Climate Gateway” – as Mr. Al-Attiyah called the deal – marked the beginning of discussions on a universal, legally-binding international agreement on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, which should be ratified in 2015 and come into force by 2020. “This is a gateway to the future, even beyond 2020,” he said. “We hope it will be a gateway for the whole world.”